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language="javascript" src="http://localhost:1008/jsfiles/ads/show.aspx?adsID=783325393395737"></script> </div> <div class="title"> <span class="link05"></span> <h1>棉花供不足需行情非理性上�?p><center> </h1> <div style="text-align:center"> 来源:中国棉花交易网　　 2009�?0�?0�?3:09:59 </div> <span class="link05"> <div id="speech_player" name="speech_player" style="text-align:center"></div> <div id="contentid" name="copytext" style="display:none"> <p>�?008年度开年的非理性下跌相类似�?009年度开始以来的棉价似乎正在走上一条非理性上涨的道路。这背后的推动力除了棉花供不足需的基本面之外，市场各方的心理预期作用巨大。据笔者了解，目前的各方对棉价的预期看到最高的能达�?6000�?吨，普遍预期�?4500�?吨以上。笔者认为棉价过14500�?吨的可能性较大，但不会持续太长时间�?/p> <p>近期棉价继续上涨的理由是：供给方面，本年度棉花产量下降尤其是高等级棉资源大幅减少，加之新棉规模上市时间推迟、棉花企业持棉待涨，使得当前的市场实际有效供给量较往年大为减少；需求方面，当前正值纺织销售旺季，纺织下游销售情况有所好转，企业原料采购力度加大。而且当前正是棉花收购和秋播规划的关键时期，为保障棉农利益及稳定下年度棉花种植面积，大力度的调控政策此时出台的可能性很小，</p> <p>棉价不会长期维持高位的理由是：一是纺织下游消费特别是布的销售这一环节尚未根本性好转，纺织企业承受棉价的能力值得观察。二是纺织内外销增长面临压力�?月的纺织品服装出口虽然有所好转，不过当前外销仍然面临着“贸易保护主义加剧和产品价格优势减�?rdquo;两大压力。内销市场方面，传统的销售旺季过去之后，内销的增长力度恐不能维持。三是纺织企业向下游转嫁成本的能力不够，这主要是由于终端消费的萎靡和纺织业本身产能过剩两方面的因素相互叠加造成的。三是棉价过快上涨，国家出台相关调控政策稳定市场的可能性加大，毕竟纺织业是“保增长、保就业”重点扶持的行业，也是棉花产业链的终端，如果由于原材料成本大幅上涨，迫使纺织厂停产，那么最终损害的将是整个产业链的利益�?/p> <p> </p> <center></center> </div> </span> </div> <div class="txt link05" id="txt"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0 "width="100%" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p> �?008年度开年的非理性下跌相类似�?009年度开始以来的棉价似乎正在走上一条非理性上涨的道路。这背后的推动力除了棉花供不足需的基本面之外，市场各方的心理预期作用巨大。据笔者了解，目前的各方对棉价的预期看到最高的能达�?6000�?吨，普遍预期�?4500�?吨以上。笔者认为棉价过14500�?吨的可能性较大，但不会持续太长时间�?/p><p> 近期棉价继续上涨的理由是：供给方面，本年度棉花产量下降尤其是高等级棉资源大幅减少，加之新棉规模上市时间推迟、棉花企业持棉待涨，使得当前的市场实际有效供给量较往年大为减少；需求方面，当前正值纺织销售旺季，纺织下游销售情况有所好转，企业原料采购力度加大。而且当前正是棉花收购和秋播规划的关键时期，为保障棉农利益及稳定下年度棉花种植面积，大力度的调控政策此时出台的可能性很小，</p><div class="adCenter"> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="/ad/jsfiles/3374532692/7222778990.js"></script> </div><p> 棉价不会长期维持高位的理由是：一是纺织下游消费特别是布的销售这一环节尚未根本性好转，纺织企业承受棉价的能力值得观察。二是纺织内外销增长面临压力�?月的纺织品服装出口虽然有所好转，不过当前外销仍然面临着“贸易保护主义加剧和产品价格优势减�?rdquo;两大压力。内销市场方面，传统的销售旺季过去之后，内销的增长力度恐不能维持。三是纺织企业向下游转嫁成本的能力不够，这主要是由于终端消费的萎靡和纺织业本身产能过剩两方面的因素相互叠加造成的。三是棉价过快上涨，国家出台相关调控政策稳定市场的可能性加大，毕竟纺织业是“保增长、保就业”重点扶持的行业，也是棉花产业链的终端，如果由于原材料成本大幅上涨，迫使纺织厂停产，那么最终损害的将是整个产业链的利益�?/p><p> </p><center></center> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="editor"> <b>上一�?</b><a href="/n//501034.html">苏物期货：郑棉再创新高棉花上�?/a> <b>下一�?</b><a href="/n//501036.html">新疆六项举措推进秋冬�? <p</a><br/> <span class="more">来源：中国棉花交易网编辑�?CAIBIAN004</span><br/> <span class="ico_favorites"><a href="javascript:addBookmark(document.title,location.href)">收藏此页</a></span> <span class="ico_print"><a href="javascript:window.print();">打印此页</a></span> </div>  </div>  <div id="divAd" name="divAd" style="display:none"></div>  <div><script src="http://huilin.myttc.cn/ad/20090615/20090615100511.js"></script></div> <div style="border:1px #cccccc solid;text-align:center;"> 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<p>棉价不会长期维持高位的理由是：一是纺织下游消费特别是布的销售这一环节尚未根本性好转，纺织企业承受棉价的能力值得观察。二是纺织内外销增长面临压力�?月的纺织品服装出口虽然有所好转，不过当前外销仍然面临着“贸易保护主义加剧和产品价格优势减�?rdquo;两大压力。内销市场方面，传统的销售旺季过去之后，内销的增长力度恐不能维持。三是纺织企业向下游转嫁成本的能力不够，这主要是由于终端消费的萎靡和纺织业本身产能过剩两方面的因素相互叠加造成的。三是棉价过快上涨，国家出台相关调控政策稳定市场的可能性加大，毕竟纺织业是“保增长、保就业”重点扶持的行业，也是棉花产业链的终端，如果由于原材料成本大幅上涨，迫使纺织厂停产，那么最终损害的将是整个产业链的利益�?/p> <p> </p> <center></center> </div> </span> </div> <div class="txt link05" id="txt"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0 "width="100%" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p> �?008年度开年的非理性下跌相类似�?009年度开始以来的棉价似乎正在走上一条非理性上涨的道路。这背后的推动力除了棉花供不足需的基本面之外，市场各方的心理预期作用巨大。据笔者了解，目前的各方对棉价的预期看到最高的能达�?6000�?吨，普遍预期�?4500�?吨以上。笔者认为棉价过14500�?吨的可能性较大，但不会持续太长时间�?/p><p> 近期棉价继续上涨的理由是：供给方面，本年度棉花产量下降尤其是高等级棉资源大幅减少，加之新棉规模上市时间推迟、棉花企业持棉待涨，使得当前的市场实际有效供给量较往年大为减少；需求方面，当前正值纺织销售旺季，纺织下游销售情况有所好转，企业原料采购力度加大。而且当前正是棉花收购和秋播规划的关键时期，为保障棉农利益及稳定下年度棉花种植面积，大力度的调控政策此时出台的可能性很小，</p><div class="adCenter"> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="/ad/jsfiles/3374532692/7222778990.js"></script> </div><p> 棉价不会长期维持高位的理由是：一是纺织下游消费特别是布的销售这一环节尚未根本性好转，纺织企业承受棉价的能力值得观察。二是纺织内外销增长面临压力�?月的纺织品服装出口虽然有所好转，不过当前外销仍然面临着“贸易保护主义加剧和产品价格优势减�?rdquo;两大压力。内销市场方面，传统的销售旺季过去之后，内销的增长力度恐不能维持。三是纺织企业向下游转嫁成本的能力不够，这主要是由于终端消费的萎靡和纺织业本身产能过剩两方面的因素相互叠加造成的。三是棉价过快上涨，国家出台相关调控政策稳定市场的可能性加大，毕竟纺织业是“保增长、保就业”重点扶持的行业，也是棉花产业链的终端，如果由于原材料成本大幅上涨，迫使纺织厂停产，那么最终损害的将是整个产业链的利益�?/p><p> </p><center></center> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="editor"> <b>上一�?</b><a href="/n//501034.html">苏物期货：郑棉再创新高棉花上�?/a> <b>下一�?</b><a href="/n//501036.html">新疆六项举措推进秋冬�? <p</a><br/> <span class="more">来源：中国棉花交易网编辑�?CAIBIAN004</span><br/> <span class="ico_favorites"><a href="javascript:addBookmark(document.title,location.href)">收藏此页</a></span> <span class="ico_print"><a href="javascript:window.print();">打印此页</a></span> </div>  </div>  <div id="divAd" name="divAd" style="display:none"></div>  <div><script src="http://huilin.myttc.cn/ad/20090615/20090615100511.js"></script></div> <div style="border:1px #cccccc solid;text-align:center;"> 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