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<h1>植物油行情反弹仍将继续维?p><center> </h1>
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中华油脂网 2009?0?0?3:09:58</dl>
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强。由于今年以来国际油脂油料价格相对前两年偏低，加之我国政府对大豆、油菜籽的临时收储，控制了部分油脂货源，今年以来我国进口油脂、油料数量比往年有较多增长。月度进口数量一度创出历史新高，港口油脂、油料库存数量也都处于近几年高点水平。甚至庞大的库存数量使得国庆中秋双节集中消费旺季并不明显，油脂价格和走货量都不温不火，在节后更是显得较为冷清。所以近一段时间，虽然油脂期货随外盘如火如荼地大幅上涨，但现货涨幅明显较小。我们认为，这种局面随着后期库存的消化和贸易商对反弹趋势的认同，现货价格也会大幅跟涨，并成为促进盘面上涨的利多因素之一。原因有以下几点：一是后几个月大豆进口数量下降。据统计9月份进口大豆数量已经开始下降，环比下降12%?0月份进口数量可能继续下降。二是消费旺季来临。冬季一般是植物油的消费旺季，加之元旦、春节等重大节日来临，油脂将迎来一年中最为集中的旺销时段。三是高熔点棕榈油逐渐退出市场，一定程度上降低植物油总体供应。四是政策利多陆续出现。除政府已经在油菜籽主产区再度实?00万吨油菜籽的临时收储外，在大豆主产区实施保护性收储也基本证实，而且提高大豆收储价格的可能性远大于降低或与往年持平的可能性?p> 总体来看，近几个月植物油的的走势仍属于宽幅震荡，在没有向任何一个方向形成突破前，我们依旧坚持这样的观点。但显然前期运行到区间低点时，现在向上反弹的概率自然更大，而目前看，由于利多消息的汇集，继续反弹的可能性更大一些。至于后期能不能形成向上突破，则继续等待基本面上的利多以及技术面走出来的效果?p> <center>
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