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<h1>近期大豆市场仍将以低位震荡为?p><center> </h1>
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分析预测 -- 市场信息 -- 安徽农网 2009?0?0?1:09:04</dl>
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在供给紧张?/font><p> <font face="宋体">综上所述，我们可以看出，美国丰产已成定局只比预计略有减少并没有做多得充分根据?/font><p> <font face="宋体">国内秋冬农业工作中并没有提及大豆收购价格，小麦因今年大旱，而提高保护价不足为奇。大豆定价可谓难办，定价太高就形成“价格高地”美豆就会源源不断流向我国，对我国大豆产业形成冲击，油脂企业亏损生产?月份美国大豆协会来我国大豆主产区考察，期间建议我国集中力量发展食品用大豆，也就是放弃榨油，虽遭到我方人士的反对，但美方人士所说也不是毫无根据的?/font><p> <font face="宋体">目前国储大豆的拍卖就是最好的例证。前期定价偏离市场，虽保护广大豆农的利益，但也得不到市场的认同，大部分油厂都是停工检修机器，大有一幅“刀枪入库，马放南山”的架势?/font><p> <font face="宋体">定价太低，又贱农伤农，影响农民种豆的积极性，国储大豆拍卖更加困难。到那时又将大量进口国外大豆，这样一来恶性循环，我国在大豆产业彻底受制于人?/font><p> <font face="宋体">近期有人士建议：大豆临时收储在价格的制定上既要参考进口大豆的价格，也要参考大豆期货的价格，收储价格与这两个价格相比既不能过高也不能过低?/font><p> <font face="宋体">笔者个人认为，如果这样定价，国储价格将低去年收购价格，那将对近期大豆价格来说将是利空打压。近期，市场传言补贴政策，如果传闻得到证实，不言而喻国储大豆等于降价拍卖?/font><p> <font face="宋体">近期行情上涨为资金利用近期美国秋霜对美豆的影响和报告中略低于预估产量，可对于天气来说只是对大豆收割进度有影响与产量并无多大关系，报告中比预估略低实际变相称美豆产量创历史新高。可是单就大豆生产成本来说也不支持过度下跌?/font><p> <font face="宋体">目前市场还将以低位震荡为主?/font><p> <center>
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